Kenya’s ASAL Crisis Deepens: Mandera Hits Extreme Malnutrition as 3.27 Million Face Hunger

Nairobi / ASAL Counties | February 2026

By Bruno Aero Family Media 

Staff Writer

Kenya’s northern and arid counties are standing at the edge of a humanitarian precipice. The latest assessments reveal that 3.27 million people are already in high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above) across the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs). That’s nearly one in five people—families, children, and communities—now in urgent need of life-saving assistance.

The numbers tell a stark story:

2.87 million people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3)

399,850 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4)—just one step below famine conditions.

If the upcoming March–May rains fail, projections show the crisis could engulf 3.69 million people, with over 607,000 in Emergency. That would mean 20 percent of the ASAL population facing severe hunger.

Mandera: Epicenter of the Emergency

Mandera County has become the face of this escalating disaster. After the poor short rains of late 2025, Mandera has entered the Alarm phase of drought. More than 335,000 residents need humanitarian aid, and the county’s nutrition crisis has reached the highest severity classification: IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 5 (Extremely Critical).

86,360 children under five require treatment for acute malnutrition.

20,165 children are already suffering from Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM).

Over 17,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women urgently need nutrition support.

This is not just a crisis of today—it is an intergenerational emergency threatening the future of entire communities.

National Picture: A Rising Tide of Malnutrition

Across Kenya, the situation is worsening. 810,871 children under five now require treatment for acute malnutrition, with nearly 500,000 in ASAL counties alone. More than 113,000 children are already in Severe Acute Malnutrition.

The drivers are cumulative:

Consecutive failed rains

Declining livestock productivity and milk supply

Soaring food prices

Longer treks for water

Fragile health systems strained by disease and commodity stock-outs

Even refugee-hosting camps are under severe stress, with 430,000 people—60% of camp populations—already in Crisis or Emergency.

A Narrowing Window for Action

Kenya is not yet in famine. But with Mandera’s nutrition already at Phase 5, and nearly 400,000 people in Emergency conditions, the trajectory is unmistakable. The March–May rains are a decisive turning point. If they fail, localized catastrophic outcomes could emerge.

The Government of Kenya has mobilized KES 6 billion for drought response, alongside county-level water trucking, livestock surveillance, and nutrition programming. Humanitarian partners have launched flash appeals and hotspot mapping. Yet, the scale of need now exceeds available assistance.

Locally Led Response: Mandera at the Frontline

The ASAL Humanitarian Network (AHN) has activated a coordinated, locally led early response under its Drought Flash Appeal (Jan–July 2026). In Mandera, frontline organizations like NAPAD, RACIDA, and Mandera Women for Peace are delivering integrated interventions in food, water, nutrition, protection, and peace-sensitive community engagement.

Their work embodies a critical principle: early warning must lead to early action.

Call to Action

The crisis in Mandera and across Kenya’s ASALs is a clear reminder: time is running out. With millions already in hunger and projections worsening, sustained, flexible, and timely support is urgently required to prevent Crisis from becoming Catastrophe.